Back on the Distance Running Trail

Yesterday was a busy one at "work." I used the term "work" because I am still working at home; and, will be for the foreseeable future. It just seemed like the phone kept ringing, email kept coming in, and I even had to run into the office real quick to take care of a meeting. So, I just rolled with the punches.

I wanted to go for a run in the morning, as it was really nice out; 42 degrees, light wind, and sunshine. However, due to the work tasks continually popping up, I put it off until later in the day. In hindsight, I am glad I did.

I hit the trail a little after 4pm. There were several folks out on the trail, but not too many that it felt crowded or that I needed to avoid anyone. My goal for this run: 13.1 miles; a half marathon. After all, I had to make this one up from earlier in the month; and, I wanted to get credit for a March half marathon on Strava.

The run started out really well. I ran the first nine miles in about an hour and a half. I really felt good and thought there might be a chance I could beat my personal record. However, shortly after the 9-mile point, my legs started cramping horribly. I am not sure if I just wasn't hydrated enough since the temperature was near 70 or what, but it felt like I just hit a brick wall. I ended up walking the last 4.1 miles of the run. However, the mission was accomplished! I was able to earn my Omaha St. Paddy's Half Marathon medal and hang it on the wall!

Using Politics for Personal Gain and a Question of Ethics

I do not like to talk about politics publicly. We each have our views, believe in what we want to, and support who we feel has our best interests in mind. The reason I do not talk about this stuff publicly is that people cannot just accept that we have different views. Sure, I will listen to what you have to say, but I will not berate you for it. Unfortunately, too many want to berate others so I just keep it out of the public conversation. All of that to say, this will not be a political post, but rather just some thoughts about politicians and using their office for personal gain.

If you have not seen the news, Senators Richard Burr (R-NC) and Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) both received classified briefings about the severity of the coronavirus currently wreaking havoc on the world and it's economy. Shortly thereafter, they began dumping stocks and profiting millions of dollars ahead of the dramatic downturn in the stock market; a downturn that has slowed down a bit, but may not stop anytime soon. Even after dumping their stocks, they continued to reassure the American people, their constituents, that everything would be fine; echoing President Trump's word. Why, then, sell large portions of your portfolio?

There have been cries about insider trading and calling for these two to resign. But, is this really insider trading? It is really hard to say. As I understand it, insider trading has more to do with executives, like a CEO, selling off large shares of stock because of information he or she knows about the company they lead and that it would have a negative impact on the company's stock price. The information is not readily available to public shareholders and, based on that, it is insider trading. Burr and Loeffler certainly are not CEOs of major corporations; they are senators. Thus, I would be reluctant to say this is insider trading. However, when it comes to ethics, now we have an argument.

I really have not seen much on Burr's transactions, but Loeffler has put hers out on twitter and her senate page for the world to see. Now, here is what is interesting about the transactions in February. There was a gradual sell-off of a few companies over the course of a few days and then they drop a few full sales of all shares and, interestingly enough, this included Exxon Mobil. On the same day as the Exxon Mobil sale, she purchases shares in Centrix and Oracle. On the surface, it may not seem like that big of a deal, but here is where ethics comes into play.

On or around February 13, there was a classified briefing which Burr had attended. I have not been able to find if Loeffler attended the same briefing. The mass sale of Exxon Mobil shares occurred on February 14, the same day as the mass purchase of Centrix and Oracle shares. Obviously, we are seeing that the coronavirus is causing oil prices to plummet. Coincidentally, Centrix and Oracle are two companies that would stand to profit greatly off of the working from home, or teleworking, concept to prevent the spread of the virus. I leave it up to you to make up your own mind. Was this unethical trading? Did the information she obtained from either the briefing or, perhaps, Burr persuade her to make a move?

Day Three Working From Home

The kids are on spring break from school this week. And, quite frankly, they will be on spring break for a while after the schools called classes off indefinitely. They will reevaluate the situation every couple of weeks, but they are not expecting any movement on that for six to eight weeks. Last week, they made a decision to have most of us administrative staff folks work from home. So, here I sit with the kids all week.

At first, the thought of working from home seemed great. After all, we are getting ready to move so, during the times I am not working, I could knock out some stuff to get the house ready for sale. It seems like a good idea, right? Boy howdy, it has been quite a few days. Yesterday was non-stop with my phone, now nicknamed "The Trolley" going off until late into the night. Why "The Trolley" you might ask? It is an iPhone with the ding, ding for text messages. So, when it goes off, I incessantly yell, "There's the trolley!" Hey, you have to have fun with some things, right? What I thought would be somewhat relaxing turned into a need to find a better solution. Today, I did just that.

Home Office v1.0

I had been working in the living room. I typically work on homework while I am just relaxing with my wife and watching, nay listening, to the television. Thus, it was a simple thought that I would set up shop in the same place. Let me tell you, it sent me into an anxious fervor for the past couple of days. When I got back to the house this morning after taking care of a work issue, I decided today was the day to change things. I cleaned off the table downstairs and, for now, this is where work and homework will take place. Upstairs is a place to relax; downstairs a place to work. Honestly, it worked. I feel much more relaxed today than I have the past two.

Time will tell if this is the solution. After all, we are only on day three of this teleworking environment. It is much easier to leave the house, go to work, focus on work, and then come home to relax. Bringing work into my sanctuary is something I thought would be easy. Boy, was I in for a complete and utter shock!

COVID-19 and the Financial Markets

Market Update from Robinhood

The financial markets are reeling from the COVID-19 pandemic. An email I received this morning from Robinhood shows just how much the market was impacted in the past week alone. And, while President Trump trumpeted the glory of a 2,000 point recovery in the DOW during his address to the nation yesterday, the truth of the matter is that we are likely to see a significant recovery any time soon.

I try not to look at my two investment funds, the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) and Acorns, too often. After all, they are not brokerage accounts set up for day trading of stocks and bonds. Rather, they are long-term investments. However, I looked at them this morning just to get a sense of where they stand. Let's look at Acorns first, where I have my portfolio set to Moderately Aggressive.

Acorns Moderately Aggressive Portfolio

The Moderately Aggressive portfolio offered by Acorns is billed as ideal for those with a longer-term investment plan and a higher tolerance for risk. As such, it invests heavily in large-company stocks through the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO); 38% to be exact. And, from what I have noticed, VOO appears to be the biggest mover and shaker in the portfolio.

A Dismal 3-Month Return

Looking at my 3-month return on Acorns is, well, pretty scary. I have "lost" 14.38% during that time. And, I say "lost" because I am in it for the long haul. I will not lose any money until I cash out and lick my wounds. With this downturn in the market, I am not panicking and will hang on to see the recovery. My only hope, as a long-term investor, is that it will stay down just a while longer so that I can buy more into this significant drop and reap the benefits when the market recovers; and, it will recover. We say a pretty stiff drop in 2008 during the recession and, well, my TSP account took a nosedive into previously unchartered territory for me. However, I moved much of my investment there into the high-risk sector and ended up recovering very nicely. Coincidentally, I moved a large chunk of it back to a more moderate approach just a couple of months ago; a move I think I am glad I made.

Speaking of TSP, it has also been taking a beating as the market turns down. Looking at my balance as of Friday, March 13, my TSP account is down nearly as much as my Acorns account: 16.3%. Over the course of the past three months, my TSP has "lost" nearly $5,000 in value. Again, it is not lost until I start selling off shares by pulling money out which, since it is a retirement account, I cannot do without paying taxes on it. So, I leave it to sit and wait for the market to recover again. The only thought I have with my TSP right now is, do I move my money back into the high-risk funds in hopes of a great recovery? The problem therein is that we just do not know when the bounce will happen and, like I said previously, the TSP is not a day trading account.

We all need to face the facts here. The markets are going to be in turmoil over COVID-19 for a while. This virus outbreak is unlike anything most of us have seen in our lifetimes. There have been a couple of large influenza outbreaks globally in the past 100 years, in 1918, 1956-58, and 1968. I am not old, by any means, but I get the feeling that the markets are reflecting a lot of uncertainty with a younger generation who has not seen the effects of something like this on the global economy. That said, I am prepared to sit it out and wait for the long-term to see what happens. I think most of us should. We will recover, just like we have from everything else, and those of us who patiently wait will be rewarded well for doing so; just my personal take on the COVID-19 outbreak and the financial markets.

Thoughts on the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Last Thursday, March 5th, a friend in Ohio shared a video on Facebook about the pandemonium of shelves being completely depleted and, interestingly enough, toilet paper. It was a bit later in the evening, around 7:30pm, so I told my wife I would head to Sam's Club just to grab a few supplies; and, ironically, we actually needed toilet paper. So, I headed off to the store.

I was quite surprised when I got to Sam's Club. There was no craziness inside and, as I walked the aisles, I felt that maybe this mass hysteria had somehow skipped over our area. I grabbed the essentials we needed: bread, milk, some meat, and a few other things. Surprisingly, the chicken was extremely picked over while the other meats; pork chops, steak, hamburger, etc. were widely available. Other than that, nothing seemed amiss until I made it to the paper aisle.

When I made it to the paper aisle, which includes paper towels and toilet paper, nearly all of the toilet paper was gone. At this point, I had not even heard about the toilet paper hysteria. So, needless to say, I was taken aback. Here is this large store, shelves stocked full, and the only thing that is nearly completely sold out is, toilet paper? I managed to buy one bundle of Sam's Club's Maker's Mark brand paper which, honestly, is decent toilet paper. With that, we should be set for at least a month. I did not consider shopping for food until I was sitting here Friday night and reading some of the news.

I went to our local Baker's grocery store, part of the Kroger family, mainly to grab just a few things. My plan was to get some Gatorade, cheese, milk, and a few canned goods to make chili and soup a couple of nights over the next week or two. My plan was still intact until I made it to the canned vegetable and canned meat aisle. The shelves were very picked over, so I changed my mind and decided to make this trip one to stock up necessities and food to last us about a month; and, that is just what I did!

So, here we sit, pantry and freezer stocked full, and wait for this COVID-19 concern to resolve itself. Being in the military, I have been directed to stay in the local area and my family, although under the same direction and highly advised not to, could travel to visit family if they wanted to. We were supposed to make a trip together to Kansas next weekend but, well, I cannot go. We are taking this day by day and, with some hope, prayer, and determined healthcare workers, perhaps this will not be as bad as they say. I guess we will see.

I get the concern over this virus. From what I have heard, it spreads very, very fast. We have just had the first confirmed case of community spread here in Nebraska. I have seen people disgruntled over the canceling of events, the postponement of sporting events, and other large gatherings of people. Quite frankly, I do not understand that angst. This, and over viruses, spread through close contact and, well, putting large amounts of people into somewhat confined spaces is not an ideal way to curb the spread.

Am I scared? Not really. I know that there is the possibility of getting sick, just as there is any other day of the week. However, I am happy that community and military leaders are taking steps to prevent the further spread of COVID-19. We will make it through this, it will just take some time. And, if you have to venture out, take appropriate steps to protect yourself from catching this nasty virus. That is how my family and I are approaching it and, hopefully, we will weather this storm without any hiccups.

To close, I would say that, if you are hysterical about this and buying up everything in the stores, step back, take a deep breath, and then relax. As leaders across the country have said, there is no need to buy mass quantities of goods. Should you have enough to last a few weeks? Absolutely. Having a few weeks of food means you do not need to get out and about every couple of days. That will help lessen potential exposure. Then, if you run out, go restock what you need and leave some for the rest of us! Just my thoughts.

Please, try to stay healthy and, if you feel sick, just stay home for a few days. If it doesn't get better, reach out to your doctor and let them know. Let's #FlattenTheCurve!